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Resources » CrowdWorx Library

CrowdWorx Library

This is a collection of relevant readings on Prediction Markets and Collective Intelligence. It does not contain every possible paper on Prediction Markets which is “on the market” but it covers pretty much the whole ground except for some side topics, e.g. software development of PMs.

Introductory and seminal works

2004 Guessing games

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The Economist, London

Aleksandar Ivanov 2009 Using Prediction Markets to Harness Collective Wisdom for Forecasting

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The Journal of Business Forecasting, 28 3, Graceway Publishing, Flushing, N. Y., 9–14

Charles R. Plott, 2000 Markets as Information Gathering Tools

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Southern Economic Journal, 1 67, Allen Press, Lawrence, 1-15

Sales forecasting and Market Research with Crowd Intelligence

Dawn Keller, 2007 Tag Trade…Best Buy’s Predicition Market

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Working paper, Kansas City

Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, 2009 Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

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Working paper

Carol Gebert 2008 Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry

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Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2008 9, International Institute of Forecasters, Medford, MA, 25-29

Henry Berg, 2007 Prediction Markets at Microsoft

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Information Markets Group Microsoft Corporation

Kay-Yut Chen, Charles R. Plott, 2002 Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem

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Working paper, 1131, Pasadena

Product innovation & new product sales forecasting, and R&D management

Cédric Gaspoz, 2008 Prediction Markets as an Innovative Way to Manage R&D Portfolios

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Working paper, Lausanne

Cédric Gaspoz, Jan Ondrus, Yves Pigneur, 2008 Comparison of Multicriteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight

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Working paper, Lausanne

Arina Soukhoroukova, 2007 Produktinnovation mit Informationsmärkten

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Dissertation, Passau

Jim Lavoie, 2009 The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham

Christina Lacomb, 2007 GE’s Imagination Markets

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Technical Information Series, GE Global Research

Brian Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett, Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009 Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: an implementation of GE’S Imagination Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham

Marco Ottaviani, 2009 The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham

Martin Spann, Holger Ernst, Bernd Skiera, Jan Hendrik Soll, 2006 Identification of Lead Users for Consumer Products via Virtual Stock Markets

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Journal of Product Innovation Management, Product Development & Management Association, Buckingham

Nicholas Chan, Ely Dahan, Adlar Kim, Andrew Lo, Tomaso Poggio, 2002 Securities Trading of Concepts (STOC)

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Working paper, Cambridge

Project management with Collective Intelligence using Prediction Markets

Gerhard Ortner, 1998 Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application, Part I

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Working paper, Vienna

Gerhard Ortner, 1997 Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application, Part II

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Working paper, Vienna

Incentive systems in prediction markets, real-money vs. play-money Prediction Markets

Emile Servan-Schreiber, Justin Wolfers, David M. Pennock, Brian Galebach, 2004 Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?

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Electronic Markets, 14/ 3, Routledge, New York, 243-251

Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, 2007 How to pay traders in information markets: Results from a field experiment

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 147-156

Christian Slamka, Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, 2008 Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 53–70

Thomas Seemann, Harald Hungenberg, Albrecht Enders, 2008 The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 33–46

Thomas Seemann, Albrecht Enders, Harald Hungenberg, 2009 Influences on the Trust in Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 1–20

Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, Michael Cipriano, 2008 Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 1, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 29–43

Art Hall, 2009 The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 1, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 13–16

Christian Slamka, Wolfgang Jank, Bernd Skiera, 2009 Second-Generation Prediction Markets for Information Aggregation: A Comparison of Payoff Mechanisms

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Working Paper Series

Corporate governance, Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0

Timm Sprenger, Paul Bolster, Anand Venkateswaran, 2007 Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems – An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 189–208

Michael Abramowicz, M. Todd Henderson, 2006 Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance

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Notre Dame Law Review, 82/ 4, Notre Dame

Forecasting economic and political outcomes with Prediction Markets

Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz, 2003 Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets

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Working paper, Iowa

Joyce Berg, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz, 2000 Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research

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Working paper, Iowa City

Gerhard Ortner, 1996 Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Prognoseinstrument – Qualitätskriterien der Informationsverarbeitung in Börsen am Beispiel Political Stock Markets

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PhD thesis, Vienna

Michael Berlemann, Forrest Nelson, 2005 Forecasting inflation via experimental stock markets

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Working paper, Dresden – Iowa City

Michael Berlemann, 2006 Forecasting the ECB’s main refinancing rate

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Economics Letters, 99/ 2, Elsevier, London – Amsterdam 379-383

Michael Berlemann, Carsten Schmidt, 2001 Predictive Accuracy of Political Stock Markets Empirical Evidence from an European Perspective

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Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics, 5, Dresden

Michael Berlemann, 2004 Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose

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ifo Schnelldienst, 57/ 16, München, 21-29

Theoretical and algorithmic works: Information aggregation algorithms and theoretical analyses

Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, 2006 Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

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IZA Discussion Paper, 1975, Bonn

Michael Abramowicz, 2007 The hidden beauty of the quadratic market scoring rule: A uniform liquidity market maker, with variations

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 2 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 111-125

Robin Hanson, 2007 Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 3–15

Sanmay Das, 2001 Intelligent Market-Making in Artificial Financial Markets

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Master thesis, Cambridge

Marco Ottaviani, Peter Norman Sorensen, 2007 The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations

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Working paper, Copenhagen

Marco Ottaviani Peter Norman Sorensen, 2007 Outcome Manipulation in Corporate Prediction Markets

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Journal of the European Economic Association, 5/ 2-3 MIT Press, Cambridge, 554-563

Ole Bergfjord, 2008 Prediction markets as a tool for management of political risk

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 1-12

David M. Pennock, 2004 A Dynamic PariMutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation

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Yahoo! Research Labs, Pasadena

Robin Hanson, 2003 Book Orders for Market Scoring Rules

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Department of Economics George Mason University

Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine, Bernardo A. Huberman, 2004 Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Small Group Predictions

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Hewlett- Packard Laboratories, Palo Alto

Abraham Othman, Tuomas Sandholm, David M. Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves,2010 A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker

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Working Paper, Cambridge

Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine, Bernardo A. Huberman, 2003 Predicting the Future

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Hewlett- Packard Laboratories, 5/ 1, Springer Netherlands, Palo Alto

Scientific empirical experiments with Prediction Markets

Jed D. Christiansen, 2007 Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments in Small Markets and Behaviours Observed

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 17-41

Ricard Gil, Steven D. Levitt, 2007 Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 255–270

John Ledyard, Robin Hanson, Takashi Ishikida, 2007 An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets

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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 69/ 2, Elsevier, London – Amsterdam, 182-189

Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, 2007 Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 219–231

Andreas Graefe, Christof Weinhardt, 2008 Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets – A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 71–92

Martin Spann Bernd Skiera, 2003 Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting

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Management Science, 49 10, Hanover, 310–1326

Anita Elberse Bharat Anand, 2005 Advertising and Expectations: The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures

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Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, 05-060, Boston

David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles, Finn Arup Nielsen, 2001 The Real Power of Artificial Markets

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Science/ 291 AAAS, Washington, 987-988

Alexander K. Koch, Hui-Fai Shing,2008 Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In?

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 29-50

Katarina Kalovcova, Andreas Ortmann, 2009 Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox

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Working Paper Series

Martin Waitz, Andreas Mild,2009 Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets – A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 49-62

Michael Blume, Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, 2008 Fraud detection in play-money prediction markets

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Information Systems and E-Business Management, Springer Berlin / Heidelberg

Miscellaneous

Tom W. Bell, 2009 Private Prediction Markets and the Law

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 89-110

Paul W. Rhode, Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004 Historical Presidential Betting Markets

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Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 2, Pittsburgh 127-142

Robin Hanson, 2003 Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?

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Working paper, Fairfax

Robin Hanson, 1989 Idea Futures. Encouraging an Honest Consensus

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Working paper The Foresight Institute, Palo Alto