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CrowdWorx Library

Einführung und wichtige Arbeiten

2004 Guessing games

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The Economist, London

Aleksandar Ivanov 2009 Using Prediction Markets to Harness Collective Wisdom for Forecasting

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The Journal of Business Forecasting, 28 3, Graceway Publishing, Flushing, N. Y., 9–14

Charles R. Plott, 2000 Markets as Information Gathering Tools

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Southern Economic Journal, 1 67, Allen Press, Lawrence, 1-15

Absatzprognose und Marktforschung mit Kollektiver Intelligenz

Dawn Keller, 2007 Tag Trade…Best Buy’s Predicition Market

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Working paper, Kansas City

Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, 2009 Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

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Working paper

Carol Gebert 2008 Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry

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Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2008 9, International Institute of Forecasters, Medford, MA, 25-29

Henry Berg, 2007 Prediction Markets at Microsoft

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Information Markets Group Microsoft Corporation

Kay-Yut Chen, Charles R. Plott, 2002 Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem

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Working paper, 1131, Pasadena

Produktinnovation, Absatzprognose neuer Produkte, F&E-Management

Cédric Gaspoz, 2008 Prediction Markets as an Innovative Way to Manage R&D Portfolios

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Working paper, Lausanne

Cédric Gaspoz, Jan Ondrus, Yves Pigneur, 2008 Comparison of Multicriteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight

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Working paper, Lausanne

Arina Soukhoroukova, 2007 Produktinnovation mit Informationsmärkten

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Dissertation, Passau

Jim Lavoie, 2009 The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham

Christina Lacomb, 2007 GE’s Imagination Markets

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Technical Information Series, GE Global Research

Brian Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett, Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009 Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: an implementation of GE’S Imagination Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham

Marco Ottaviani, 2009 The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham

Martin Spann, Holger Ernst, Bernd Skiera, Jan Hendrik Soll, 2006 Identification of Lead Users for Consumer Products via Virtual Stock Markets

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Journal of Product Innovation Management, Product Development & Management Association, Buckingham

Nicholas Chan, Ely Dahan, Adlar Kim, Andrew Lo, Tomaso Poggio, 2002 Securities Trading of Concepts (STOC)

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Working paper, Cambridge

Projektmanagement mit Kollektiver Intelligenz und Prognosebörsen

Gerhard Ortner, 1998 Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application, Part I

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Working paper, Vienna

Gerhard Ortner, 1997 Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application, Part II

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Working paper, Vienna

Anreizsysteme bei Prognosebörsen

Emile Servan-Schreiber, Justin Wolfers, David M. Pennock, Brian Galebach, 2004 Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?

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Electronic Markets, 14/ 3, Routledge, New York, 243-251

Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, 2007 How to pay traders in information markets: Results from a field experiment

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 147-156

Christian Slamka, Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, 2008 Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 53–70

Thomas Seemann, Harald Hungenberg, Albrecht Enders, 2008 The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 33–46

Thomas Seemann, Albrecht Enders, Harald Hungenberg, 2009 Influences on the Trust in Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 1–20

Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, Michael Cipriano, 2008 Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 1, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 29–43

Art Hall, 2009 The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 1, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 13–16

Christian Slamka, Wolfgang Jank, Bernd Skiera, 2009 Second-Generation Prediction Markets for Information Aggregation: A Comparison of Payoff Mechanisms

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Working Paper Series

Unternehmensführung, Web 2.0, Enterprise 2.0

Timm Sprenger, Paul Bolster, Anand Venkateswaran, 2007 Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems – An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 189–208

Michael Abramowicz, M. Todd Henderson, 2006 Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance

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Notre Dame Law Review, 82/ 4, Notre Dame

Prognose von Wirtschaftskennzahlen mit Prognosebörsen

Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz, 2003 Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets

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Working paper, Iowa

Joyce Berg, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz, 2000 Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research

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Working paper, Iowa City

Gerhard Ortner, 1996 Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Prognoseinstrument – Qualitätskriterien der Informationsverarbeitung in Börsen am Beispiel Political Stock Markets

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PhD thesis, Vienna

Michael Berlemann, Forrest Nelson, 2005 Forecasting inflation via experimental stock markets

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Working paper, Dresden – Iowa City

Michael Berlemann, 2006 Forecasting the ECB’s main refinancing rate

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Economics Letters, 99/ 2, Elsevier, London – Amsterdam 379-383

Michael Berlemann, Carsten Schmidt, 2001 Predictive Accuracy of Political Stock Markets Empirical Evidence from an European Perspective

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Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics, 5, Dresden

Michael Berlemann, 2004 Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose

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ifo Schnelldienst, 57/ 16, München, 21-29

Theoretische Arbeiten und Algorithmen

Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, 2006 Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

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IZA Discussion Paper, 1975, Bonn

Michael Abramowicz, 2007 The hidden beauty of the quadratic market scoring rule: A uniform liquidity market maker, with variations

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 2 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 111-125

Robin Hanson, 2007 Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 3–15

Sanmay Das, 2001 Intelligent Market-Making in Artificial Financial Markets

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Master thesis, Cambridge

Marco Ottaviani, Peter Norman Sorensen, 2007 The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations

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Working paper, Copenhagen

Marco Ottaviani Peter Norman Sorensen, 2007 Outcome Manipulation in Corporate Prediction Markets

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Journal of the European Economic Association, 5/ 2-3 MIT Press, Cambridge, 554-563

Ole Bergfjord, 2008 Prediction markets as a tool for management of political risk

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 1-12

David M. Pennock, 2004 A Dynamic PariMutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation

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Yahoo! Research Labs, Pasadena

Robin Hanson, 2003 Book Orders for Market Scoring Rules

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Department of Economics George Mason University

Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine, Bernardo A. Huberman, 2004 Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Small Group Predictions

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Hewlett- Packard Laboratories, Palo Alto

Abraham Othman, Tuomas Sandholm, David M. Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves,2010 A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker

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Working Paper, Cambridge

Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine, Bernardo A. Huberman, 2003 Predicting the Future

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Hewlett- Packard Laboratories, 5/ 1, Springer Netherlands, Palo Alto

Empirische wissenschaftliche Experimente mit Prognosemärkten

Jed D. Christiansen, 2007 Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments in Small Markets and Behaviours Observed

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 17-41

Ricard Gil, Steven D. Levitt, 2007 Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 255–270

John Ledyard, Robin Hanson, Takashi Ishikida, 2007 An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets

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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 69/ 2, Elsevier, London – Amsterdam, 182-189

Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, 2007 Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 219–231

Andreas Graefe, Christof Weinhardt, 2008 Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets – A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 71–92

Martin Spann Bernd Skiera, 2003 Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting

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Management Science, 49 10, Hanover, 310–1326

Anita Elberse Bharat Anand, 2005 Advertising and Expectations: The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures

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Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, 05-060, Boston

David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles, Finn Arup Nielsen, 2001 The Real Power of Artificial Markets

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Science/ 291 AAAS, Washington, 987-988

Alexander K. Koch, Hui-Fai Shing,2008 Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In?

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 29-50

Katarina Kalovcova, Andreas Ortmann, 2009 Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox

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Working Paper Series

Martin Waitz, Andreas Mild,2009 Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets – A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 49-62

Michael Blume, Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, 2008 Fraud detection in play-money prediction markets

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Information Systems and E-Business Management, Springer Berlin / Heidelberg

Sonstiges

Tom W. Bell, 2009 Private Prediction Markets and the Law

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The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 89-110

Paul W. Rhode, Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004 Historical Presidential Betting Markets

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Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 2, Pittsburgh 127-142

Robin Hanson, 2003 Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?

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Working paper, Fairfax

Robin Hanson, 1989 Idea Futures. Encouraging an Honest Consensus

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Working paper The Foresight Institute, Palo Alto