Waldemar Stronka, Prediction Market scientific advisor to Analyx, met with scientists at the Workshop on Prediction Markets hosted by the University of Copenhagen to discuss current research topics in the filed of theoretical Prediction Market research. This time Waldemar’s contribution centered around the use of prediction markets as meta-algorithms to integrate and aggregate stand-alone forecasts, e.g. from analysts, statistical analyses, Econometric models etc. into a single meta-forecast which is to outperform each individual forecast.
From a practical point of view this is also possible nowadays by allowing analysts or experts to trade on predcition markets and use the predictio of their own models as their best bets. When used in this fashion rediction markets do not only collect the collective wisdom of people but also incorporate traditional quantitative methods into their forecasts. If the forecasts made by such Econmetric modes are correct they will increase their net worth and hance their weight in the concensus forecast by being able to bet larger amounts and hence have a larger impact on the forecast of an prediction market.
The presentation can be found here: A prediction market meta algorithm. If you are interested to discuss this with us or Waldemar, you can contact us anytime.
