CrowdWorx Library

Einführung und wichtige Arbeiten

• 2004
  Guessing games
  The Economist, London
• Aleksandar Ivanov 2009
  Using Prediction Markets to Harness Collective Wisdom for Forecasting
  The Journal of Business Forecasting, 28 3, Graceway Publishing, Flushing, N. Y., 9–14
• Ralf Grötker, 2005
  Schlaue Menge
  Brand Eins, Brand Eins Verlag, Hamburg, 114-119
• Charles R. Plott, 2000
  Markets as Information Gathering Tools
  Southern Economic Journal, 1 67, Allen Press, Lawrence, 1-15

Absatzprognose und Marktforschung mit Kollektiver Intelligenz

• Dawn Keller, 2007
  Tag Trade…Best Buy’s Predicition Market
  Working paper, Kansas City
• Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, 2009
  Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google
  Working paper
• Carol Gebert 2008
  Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry
  Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2008 9, International Institute of Forecasters, Medford, MA, 25-29
• Henry Berg, 2007
  Prediction Markets at Microsoft Information Markets Group Microsoft Corporation
• Kay-Yut Chen, Charles R. Plott, 2002
  Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem  

  Working paper, 1131, Pasadena

Produktinnovation, Absatzprognose neuer Produkte, F&E-Management

• Cédric Gaspoz, 2008
  Prediction Markets as an Innovative Way to Manage R&D Portfolios
  Working paper, Lausanne
• Cédric Gaspoz, Jan Ondrus, Yves Pigneur, 2008
  Comparison of Multicriteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight
  Working paper, Lausanne
• Arina Soukhoroukova, 2007
  Produktinnovation mit Informationsmärkten
  Dissertation, Passau
• Jim Lavoie, 2009
  The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham
• Christina Lacomb, 2007
  GE’s Imagination Markets
  Technical Information Series, GE Global Research
• Kamp, Gerrit, Koen, Peter A, 2009
  Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 2, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham
• Brian Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett, Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009
  Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: an implementation of GE’S Imagination Markets
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham
• Marco Ottaviani, 2009
  The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3 1, University of Buckingham Press, Buckingham
• Martin Spann, Holger Ernst, Bernd Skiera, Jan Hendrik Soll, 2006
  Identification of Lead Users for Consumer Products via Virtual Stock Markets
  Journal of Product Innovation Management, Product Development & Management Association, Buckingham
• Nicholas Chan, Ely Dahan, Adlar Kim, Andrew Lo, Tomaso Poggio, 2002
  Securities Trading of Concepts (STOC)
  Working paper, Cambridge

Projektmanagement mit Kollektiver Intelligenz und Prognosebörsen

• Gerhard Ortner, 1998
  Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application, Part I
  Working paper, Vienna
• Gerhard Ortner, 1997
  Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application, Part II
  Working paper, Vienna

Anreizsysteme bei Prognosebörsen

• Emile Servan-Schreiber, Justin Wolfers, David M. Pennock, Brian Galebach, 2004
  Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?
  Electronic Markets, 14/ 3, Routledge, New York, 243-251
• Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, 2007
  How to pay traders in information markets: Results from a field experiment
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 147-156
• Christian Slamka, Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, 2008
  Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 53–70
• Thomas Seemann, Harald Hungenberg, Albrecht Enders, 2008
  The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 33–46
• Thomas Seemann, Albrecht Enders, Harald Hungenberg, 2009
  Influences on the Trust in Prediction Markets
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 1–20
• Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, Michael Cipriano, 2008
  Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 1, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 29–43
• Art Hall, 2009
  The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 1, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 13–16
• Christian Slamka, Wolfgang Jank, Bernd Skiera, 2009
  Second-Generation Prediction Markets for Information Aggregation: A Comparison of Payoff Mechanisms
  Working Paper Series

Unternehmensführung, Web 2.0, Enterprise 2.0

• Timm Sprenger, Paul Bolster, Anand Venkateswaran, 2007
  Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems – An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 189–208
• Michael Abramowicz, M. Todd Henderson, 2006
  Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance
  Notre Dame Law Review, 82/ 4, Notre Dame

Prognose von Wirtschaftskennzahlen mit Prognosebörsen

• Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz, 2003
  Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets
  Working paper, Iowa
• Joyce Berg, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz, 2000
  Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research
  Working paper, Iowa City
• Gerhard Ortner, 1996
  Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Prognoseinstrument – Qualitätskriterien der Informationsverarbeitung in Börsen am Beispiel Political Stock Markets
  PhD thesis, Vienna
• Michael Berlemann, Forrest Nelson, 2005
  Forecasting inflation via experimental stock markets
  Working paper, Dresden – Iowa City
• Michael Berlemann, 2006
  Forecasting the ECB’s main refinancing rate
  Economics Letters, 99/ 2, Elsevier, London – Amsterdam 379-383
• Michael Berlemann, Carsten Schmidt, 2001
  Predictive Accuracy of Political Stock Markets Empirical Evidence from an European Perspective
  Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics, 5, Dresden
• Michael Berlemann, 2004
  Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose
  ifo Schnelldienst, 57/ 16, München, 21-29

Theoretische Arbeiten und Algorithmen

• Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, 2006
  Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
  IZA Discussion Paper, 1975, Bonn
• Michael Abramowicz, 2007
  The hidden beauty of the quadratic market scoring rule: A uniform liquidity market maker, with variations
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 2 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 111-125
• Robin Hanson, 2003
  Combinatorial Information Market Design
  Information Systems Frontiers, 5/ 1, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Fairfax, 107–119
• Robin Hanson, 2007
  Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 3–15
• Sanmay Das, 2001
  Intelligent Market-Making in Artificial Financial Markets
  Master thesis, Cambridge
• Marco Ottaviani, Peter Norman Sorensen, 2007
  The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations
  Working paper, Copenhagen
• Marco Ottaviani Peter Norman Sorensen, 2007
  Outcome Manipulation in Corporate Prediction Markets
  Journal of the European Economic Association, 5/ 2-3 MIT Press, Cambridge, 554-563
• Ole Bergfjord, 2008
  Prediction markets as a tool for management of political risk
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 1-12
• David M. Pennock, 2004
  A Dynamic PariMutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation
  Yahoo! Research Labs, Pasadena,
• Robin Hanson, 2003
  Book Orders for Market Scoring Rules
  Department of Economics George Mason University,
• Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine, Bernardo A. Huberman, 2004
  Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Small Group Predictions
  Hewlett- Packard Laboratories, Palo Alto,
• Abraham Othman, Tuomas Sandholm, David M. Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves,2010
  A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker
  Working Paper, Cambridge,
• Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine, Bernardo A. Huberman, 2003
  Predicting the Future
  Hewlett- Packard Laboratories, 5/ 1, Springer Netherlands, Palo Alto,

Empirische wissenschaftliche Experimente mit Prognosemärkten

• Jed D. Christiansen, 2007
  Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments in Small Markets and Behaviours Observed
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 17-41
• Ricard Gil, Steven D. Levitt, 2007
  Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 255–270
• Robin Hanson Ryan Oprea, David Porter, 2006
  Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market
  Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 60/ 4 Elsevier, London – Amsterdam, 449–459
• John Ledyard, Robin Hanson, Takashi Ishikida, 2007
  An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets
  Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 69/ 2, Elsevier, London – Amsterdam, 182-189
• Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, 2007
  Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 219–231
• Andreas Graefe, Christof Weinhardt, 2008
  Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets – A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 71–92
• Martin Spann Bernd Skiera, 2003
  Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting
  Management Science, 49 10, Hanover, 310–1326
• Anita Elberse Bharat Anand, 2005
  Advertising and Expectations: The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures
  Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, 05-060, Boston
• David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles, Finn Arup Nielsen, 2001
  The Real Power of Artificial Markets
  Science/ 291 AAAS, Washington, 987-988
• Alexander K. Koch, Hui-Fai Shing,2008
  Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In?
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2/ 2, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 29-50
• Katarina Kalovcova, Andreas Ortmann, 2009
  Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox
  Working Paper Series
• Martin Waitz, Andreas Mild,2009
  Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets – A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 3, Buckingham University Press, Buckingham, 49-62
• Michael Blume, Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, 2008
  Fraud detection in play-money prediction markets
  Information Systems and E-Business Management, Springer Berlin / Heidelberg,

Sonstiges

• Tom W. Bell, 2009
  Private Prediction Markets and the Law
  The Journal of Prediction Markets, 3/ 1 Buckingham University Press, Buckingham 89-110
• Paul W. Rhode, Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004
  Historical Presidential Betting Markets
  Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 2, Pittsburgh 127-142
• Robin Hanson, 2003
  Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?
  Working paper, Fairfax
• Robin Hanson, 1989
  Idea Futures. Encouraging an Honest Consensus
  Working paper The Foresight Institute, Palo Alto